DripDripDrip Analysis for the week of May 30 2017

Drip, drip, drip…  It must be driving the republican administration crazy especially the US President.  The constant drop of information to the Washington Post, seemingly daily from one source in the intelligence community then another drop of information from within his administration.

While most Americans are too busy or indifferent to these daily leaks, many believe it is just “fake news” or not important.  Even the markets seem unaffected by it.  Yet, there is a consequence of these leaks: the Trump agenda has been stalled.  Whether the Washington Post or Indivisible coalitions across the country are having an impact, the Trump agenda is slowing as the distractions reverberate.  Health reform is on life support, there is tremendous diversity of opinion among Republicans, which while refreshingly exciting, means that the budget priorities of the administration are not able to be wholly implemented beyond the executive orders being signed.  If that is not enough, it seems the one enormous legislative goal, tax reform, will not be achieved this year.

With the hopes of some for an impeachment, there simply aren’t the votes in the House to impeach nor the two-thirds in the Senate to bring a conviction.  While a good lawyer could make the case that Trump sought to obstruct justice as the discovery intensifies in the Russia probe, most Democrats prefer to keep Trump in office, overwhelmed in office, rather than have Pence become US President.

What will the next steps be for Trump besides rallies to cheer him up?  With 40% of the American electorate fanatically loyal, he could threaten the media with legal action.  The public may support an assault on the press while the educated and political classes shriek in horror.  Staff shakeup as begun with the resignation of the Communications Director with more to come.  This president could either strike North Korea to change the subject.  More likely, he will dig in, fortress-like, and face a stalemate waiting for developments to unfold.

Failure abroad and the dysfunction of his administration and its execution of policies so out of date with the modern world continues to hurt the U.S. in its relationships with global allies.  Germany and France will lead Western Europe movement that excludes the U.S. and Russia influence, with overtures to India, Brazil and other countries tired of the Cold War Histories.  Muslim extremism notwithstanding, Western Europe is on the rise.

The reality is that with the Democrats have no coherent opposition strategy nor leaders of stature ready to take the reins.  Despite their inept handling of the last election, local groups organized through Indivisible and other entities, provide some minor pushback to the Health Bill passed by the US House.

The economy remains solid allowing the drip, drip, drip of the leaks, now ensnaring Jared.  Soon, either Mike Flynn or Paul Manafort will give up information rather than face jail time.  I make no bets who it will be.  Comey wants revenge.  The ugly truth is that Trump is the prize.